TLDR: China is actively fighting domestic capital outflows. They are incentivising keeping funds on-shore by pumping the equity markets. Buy large China stocks (BABA, JD). Inb4 pos or ban The Economics China has a fixed exchange rate regime. Blah blah RMB internationalization, blah blah offshore RMB (which is actually settled in US dollars). This places it within line C of the policy trilemma (which says, you can't sustainably have all 3). Since 2005 to about 2017, the government was moving towards free capital mobility because of large amounts of exports which fed the national forex reserves. You bet billions of RMB left China, which the government didn't really like at first because that reduced domestic investment and would contribute to a weaker RMB. Basically, China was trying to do all 3 which works for a short while... until your forex reserves run out. https://preview.redd.it/g0nwsssoe7f51.png?width=580&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e46b6b2cfa12b351b30ff2c5567c2f9992e99b2 The Current Problem The trade war has definitely been bad for China. I am going to try and skip politics, but basically foreign exchange reserves have been gapping down (official Chinese data is 100% fake). China is increasingly bellicose as well, which doesn't improve relations with trading partners who also buy with US dollars. You can't exchange for US dollars anymore. For private citizens, you can only exchange for education purposes or travel . For companies, you need verification of invoices through both SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) and the tax offices. This used to take 24hrs, but is now taking 2-3 weeks for amounts >$500k. China also has US dollar denominated bank accounts. But unfortunately, you can't take it in cash unless you have the reasons above. Chinese media is also branding holding US dollars as unpatriotic, so I'm afraid my $50k in digital money might be subject to confiscation. If not, it's just fake money (can't take cash or wire out). China has been brrrrrring to the pace of JPOW. Weapon of choice are muni and local bonds, which have been forced upon local banks. This creates a certain credit problem, but let's not worry about that until later. https://preview.redd.it/maul8aope7f51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=36dd4665517ec7303b51aa1416517c9e0ea50bef The Solution China's pretty smart. All those RMB quotes are fake. You can try to get US dollars, but that is almost impossible now. Anyone who wants to buy RMB, contact me and we'll trade at the current price. So looking at the impossible triangle, free capital mobility has become nonexistent. In order to keep exchange rate stability (to avoid a sudden rush towards the door) and keep printing, free capital mobility needs to be 100% sacrificed. How do you do that with a population that has seen the west and aspire to get out? You need to keep the money onshore. Thankfully, all Chinese are greedy and the equity markets are full of retailers that pump stocks up or down 10% per day. This is one of the reasons for the early July State Council report calling for everyone to buy stocks. Who's buying? Everyone. And if it drops, the national team takes over. This creates a powerful incentive to fill the foreign reserves again. Foreigners (funds) would want to get in on the action. They will exchange their dollars for RMB, get those 20% gains, but eventually find out trying to get that money back into USD is impossible. China has also been strengthening the RMB from 7.10 to 6.96 as of yesterday. Smart, because why would you want to sell an asset that's weakening? This is also a reason why China fears gold rallies - buying gold causes RMB to leave. Happily for the SAFE, some banks have stopped offering their paper gold products. China will pump its domestic markets. Unless you have a Chinese account, the closest thing you can get to are mega names like Alibaba, JD and Tencent. I would avoid touching too small companies because of LK coffee problems. Oh yeah the trade war? Well, pussies don't make money.
[Event] Ethiopia Expands Efforts to Survey Hydrocarbon Resources
October 2022 East Africa is quickly emerging as one of the premier destinations for oil and natural gas exploration, with numerous foreign companies engaged in exploratory and extractive ventures in countries like Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, Mozabique, and Uganda. This new boom in the oil industry, driven by growing global demands and new investments from rising powers like China, has already made several significant oil discoveries, including the 560 million barrel oil find in Turkana, Kenya. So far, Ethiopia's own share of this East African hydrocarbon rush has been something of a mixed bag. Early speculation regarding Ethiopia's oil reserves--which suggested that the country may have some 2.7 billion barrels of oil hidden away in its southern provinces--has so far failed to materialize into concrete finds, with Tullow Oil (the firm responsible for the Turkana find) failing to find any productive wells in the South Omo Block. Tullow remained in Africa until 2018, when it and partner Africa Oil began the process of withdrawing their operations in the South Omo Block. For a time, it seemed like the promise of hydrocarbon reserves in Ethiopia was dead, with investors looking to proven exploration markets in Uganda and Kenya instead. And then, payday. In 2018/19, Chinese oil and gas firm Poly-GCL announced the discovery of some 7 to 8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas at the Calub and Hilala gas fields in Blocks 11 and 15, which was quickly followed by British firm NewAGE's discovery of 1.6 trillion cubic feet of natural gas near Elkuran in Block 8. These discoveries, amounting to some 272km3 of gas and a smaller quantity of oil, were significant not just for their size (between these two discoveries alone, Ethiopia gained enough natural gas reserves to surpass current gas exporters like Israel, Bangladesh, and Brunei), but as proof that there were hydrocarbon resources in Ethiopia (which drew attention from firms that previously had not invested in exploration in Ethiopia, including oil giant Chevron in late 2019. Ethiopia and Djibouti immediately teamed up to build a 760km+ pipeline connecting these gas fields in the Ogaden basin to the Red Sea. Revenues from the export of natural gas, which started in 2022 with the completion of the pipeline, are expected to amount to some 1b USD annually (increasing as more projects are drilled), bringing a critical influx of FOREX to the Ethiopian government. With the first exports of Ethiopian hydrocarbon reaching international markets, and with historic oil finds in neighboring Eritrea, Ethiopia is hoping to leverage the possibility of further finds to attract additional investment into its hydrocarbon sector. At present, Ethiopia has several concession blocks that still lack investment, which the government is hoping to rectify by offering exploration rights to international hydrocarbon firms. South Omo Block With Tullow's withdrawal from Ethiopia in 2019 after failing to renew their license, the oil concession for the South Omo Block is once again up for licensing. Located in southern Ethiopia along the South Sudan and Kenya borders, the South Omo Block is a geological continuation of the Turkana basin and other major East African hydrocarbon blocks, leading many to speculate that it may share in some of that oil wealth. While the initial estimates that the block may hold up to 2.7 billion barrels of oil seem to have been overstated, if the block contains even a fraction of that amount, it would still be considerably valuable for whomever takes the block. The Poly-GCL Blocks Chinese firm Poly-GCL is easily the largest hydrocarbon operator in Ethiopia, owning the extraction rights for the bulk of the new discoveries (7-8 TCF of the total 9.6 TCF). With their ten total exploration blocks in the Ogaden basin, they also have the greatest presence in the region. However, only two of the ten blocks under the license have been properly explored, with the remaining eight awaiting further exploration. Ethiopia is hoping to reach out to Poly-GCL to persuade them to begin exploration activities in the remaining eight (as well as any other blocks they feel like leasing), with the goal of discovering my natural gas or oil. The Remaining Ogaden Basin Blocks Out of the 21 blocks in the Ogaden Basin (the site of the most recent natural gas finds), seven are still unlicensed and more or less unexplored, Blocks 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 10, and 14. Ethiopia hopes to attract foreign firms to begin exploration in these blocks. They are more likely to contain natural gas than oil, as indicated by the discovery of natural gas in blocks 7, 11, and 15, but natural gas is still valuable and desirable. Adigala Block The Adigala Block is viewed as an extension of the oil-bearing geological formations of Somaliland, which oil exploration firm Genel anticipates to contain at least 2 billion barrels of oil. Genel previously expressed interest in moving into the Adigala Block, but as of 2019, it was NewAGE, the same firm that made the Elkuran find in Block 8, that entered into license negotiations with the Ethiopian government. Ethiopia is hoping to finalize license negotiations for the Adigala Block, which Ethiopia hopes will contain some amount of oil, similar to the neighboring oil seeps in Somalia. Amhara Blocks The blocks in Amhara state are some of the least explored in the country. Neighboring blocks AB1, AB4, and AB7, operated by Falcon, reported some crude oil finds around 2018, which Ethiopia is hoping will attract additional exploration and investment in the remaining six blocks of the region. North West Oil Shale The Ethiopia-Eritrea border is home to some 3.9 billion tons of oil shale--enough to produce a staggering trillion barrels of oil, if it can ever be economically extracted. So far, there has been very little investigation into the viability of these resources, owing to low oil prices in the world. However, with production costs set to continue dropping over the foreseeable future with technological advances in extraction, and with Ethiopia's demand for oil set to grow astronomically as the country's economic development continues, Ethiopia is hoping that some segment of this oil shale can be economically developed. As such, Ethiopia has invited oil shale leaders from around the world, most notably Canadian, Chinese, Estonian, and American firms, to invest in oil shale extraction in northern Ethiopia.
[Secret] Response to the Oil Embargo Part 2: Retaliation, Covert and Chaotic
While overt operations will play a role in the retaliation, some more covert ones are needed. For these more... illegal... operations, we will have to take a different approach. North Korea: Cyberwar, Inc. North Korea has a well-established cyberwar capability and has recently begun selling its services to third parties. One of those third parties is about to become us, and we're going to buy out the entire shop, consisting of thousands of highly trained North Korean hackers. Are they the best, no, of course not--they are, after all, still North Korean. They certainly aren't as good as what we have in-house, even though they're surprisingly skilled all things considered. But they're extra talent, and talent with no official connections to China, and that's what counts here. At whatever exorbitant price that North Korea charges [we've budgeted up to $500 million, and they will get to keep whatever they steal] we're siccing every trained hacker they have on what we view as the mastermind behind these plots, the United Arab Emirates [M: Even though we don't know the contents of the closed diplo, it's not hard to come to that conclusion given that Saudi Arabia is in a civil war, the UAE leads the GCC which is leading the embargo, and it has rejected our peace offerings and stated that we are an existential threat--also, assaulting the UAE is likely to spook the other participants who are in a much more frail situation]. Attacks will aim to be diverse and encompass the entire spectrum, with one exception, which we will do. Chinese experts will provide advice and limited intelligence and cyber-reconnaissance, but will not openly involve themselves in the operations, taking especial care to ensure that they don't touch the code the North Koreans are working on. We will maintain only a very high-level management, leaving precise means, targets, and so on to the North Koreans. In addition, we'll ask the North Koreans to recruit criminal hacker groups across the globe to join on to this effort, with the North Koreans receiving additional payouts for every other criminal hacking group they bring onboard that has been verified by Chinese intelligence as actually existing [we don't trust the North Koreans that much, especially when money is on the line]. Targets are the following, in order of priority: UAE Foreign Exchange Reserves and Sovereign Wealth Fund: By far the most valuable target on the list for North Korea, the UAE's forex reserves are worth about $100 billion, and the sovereign wealth funds of the Emirates are valued at as much as $1 trillion. North Korean hackers will launch an all-out assault aiming to steal as much of this money as possible, destroying it if they must but, we imagine, preferably transferring it to North Korean accounts. Attacks via SWIFT like those conducted by North Korea in 2015-16 are possible--those attacks amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. We doubt that North Korea will be able to steal that much of this pile, especially given the fact that the UAE has an army of ex-Western cyberwarriors of its own, but even a relatively small quantity would be a significant psychological injury and would degrade global trust in the UAE. Vital Infrastructure: North Korea will target key pieces of infrastructure in the UAE. In particular, they will target the following facilities and attempt to force them offline. Even though the individual attacks won't do much damage, the cumulative impact will scare the public, damage investor confidence, and drive money out of the UAE.
Dubai International Airport
All 8 desalination plants, the only source of potable water in the UAE [top target]
UAE High-speed rail [as this system uses Chinese software the North Koreans will happen to find a copy of the source code to work this one over]
Barakah Nuclear Power Plant [as this system uses South Korean software North Korea may have added experience with it]
Ruwais Refinery, capacity 400,000 barrels of oil per day, the largest in the UAE
Influential Figures And Government Officials: North Korean hackers will also target the personal devices of government officials and influential figures in the UAE, especially politicians, military commanders, and media types. They will then leak anything remotely incriminating to the global media, possibly via Wikileaks or another such site of ill repute. In addition, for particularly important government officials, North Korea will be commissioned to produce deepfakes with which it will flood social media. These will mostly focus on baseless conspiracy theories and personal slanders, for instance, catching a top official on mike confessing to being a devil-worshiper, or portraying a popular imam as being with Western prostitutes. It is hoped that these operations will cause enough domestic trouble in the UAE that they will concede on the point of the oil embargo. If nothing else, though, they should keep the UAE distracted while we move elsewhere.
[Econ] uwaaah!~~ senpai, i can't handle the japanese yen. it's too big for me >.<
While Japanese tourists and investors are currently rejoicing at the appreciation of the JPY against most currencies, company executives and METI ministers are readying their tanto and are currently searching for an assistant to decapitate them. Too bad everyone else is getting ready for seppuku too. I jest, but METI and company executives are (to put it lightly), fucking terrified about the JPY’s newfound mastery in these current times. Although firms, tourists, and investors find it easier than ever to do business overseas, exporters are seething from the recent appreciation of the Yen. In addition, the pegging of SE Asian currencies to the Yen and China’s suspected increase in JPY reserves (although yet to be confirmed) have cemented the JPY as an possible replacement for the USD, something that is very bad for Japan’s export economy. To combat this, the BOJ has to change course from its conservative, restrictionary monetary policy (enacted to prevent a bubble economy) to a liberal monetary policy. One may ask, doesn’t this increase the probability of a bubble economy forming? Well, the BOJ has calculated that its conservative monetary policies have averted a bubble from forming. As we saw in 2029 and 2030, GDP growth was lower than predicted back in 2025, indicating that investors weren’t as bullish as before. In addition, strict financial regulations ensured that the predatory and dangerous loans of the 80s and early 90s didn’t make a comeback. Asset prices and land values, despite a nominal increase, did not soar to unreasonable heights. So what is the BOJ doing now? Inflation Japanese inflation has been very low the past three decades, using hovering around the 0.5-1% mark. Although inflation has seen a small increase during the 2020s Asian Economic Boom, it is still around 1%. In response to this, the BOJ has set an inflation goal of 2.5% for 2031 and 2032. The BOJ intends to reach this goal through three methods. 1) Interest and discount rates are to be tempered to 1.50% and 1.75% respectively. This should encourage lending between banks and companies, leading to more liquidity and more spending. 2) Buying back BOJ-issued bonds, focusing on foreign investors first. This will increase the money supply while simultaneously paying back more debt. 3) Quantitative easing increases the money supply and should increase inflation and devaluation of the JPY. These actions, in addition, to increasing inflation (and in turn stimulating domestic consumption), should help to devalue the JPY. Other measures to devalue the JPY are as follows. Depreciation of the JPY As an export-based economy, any appreciation of the JPY is very, very bad for Japan, as one saw during the 1990s. The JPY recently broke the $95 USD mark, with no sign of the appreciation stopping. The BOJ has stated that it intends to block this appreciation of the JPY will all its might, and is targeting a return to the $100 mark. It intends to do by the following methods. 1) Increasing FOREX reserves: Right now the BOJ holds around $2.2 trillion in FOREX, mainly in USD and EUR. Following rumors that China has significantly increased its FOREX reserves (analysts estimate between $500 and $800 billion in new reserves), the BOJ has announced its intentions to follow suit. It has announced an increase in FOREX reserves of $450 billion in USD, EUR, and CNY. ($200 billion in USD, $150 billion in EUR, $100 billion in CNY) This should help depreciate the JPY relative to these currencies and help exporters. 2) Japanese companies who have overseas plants like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are being encouraged to reinvest USD garnered overseas into Japan. In addition to stimulating the domestic economy, this should also increase FOREX supply in Japan. Miscellaneous 1) Domestic consumption tax rate is decreased form 8% to 6.8%. 2) Seeking to exploit the capital and investor flight from the US, a new campaign to attract foreign investment and foreign executives to settle in Japan will be launched. Titled “Land of the Rising Profits”, it will showcase the benefits of setting up shop in Japan as an investor.
[Closed--as much as any trade negotiation with the EU can be] The EU has slowly been extending its vast array of free trade agreements to cover much of the world, and, quite simply, China, as a member of our peaceful and prosperous rule-based international order, wants in. This new FTA would massively expand the EUs zone of free trade, increasing it by nearly twenty trillion, as well as increasing our trade ties with the world by a roughly equivalent amount. While we understand that developing this trade agreement will be a difficult and complex task, we have some thoughts on where to start:
Allow China general access to European financial systems
Allow Chinese nationals 30-day visa-free access to Schengen
General access to the EU of Chinese manufactured goods
Relax or eliminate restrictions on Chinese investment in the EU, including in R&D
Improved IP protections, patent sharing agreement
Establishment of internationally-staffed tribunal for arbitration of dumping/subsidy disputes
Expanded market for European [in particular] films and culture products, with European films receiving a separate annual quota in addition to being eligible to be part of our general quota
Improved human rights conditions, including wrapping up of our counter-terror operations in Xinjiang which you all seem so concerned about
General allowance of imports of European agricultural products
EU citizens will receive 30-day visa-free access to China [EMSCO partners, as a result, will receive either 30, 60 or 90-day visa-free access to China--will be in other post]
China will implement EU-standard sanctions on Russia until it drops this whole expansionism thing. It's bad for business and making everyone freak out.
Replacement of US-backed SWIFT system with joint Euro-Chinese interbank payments system designed for security and processing of transactions in EUR and RMB
China will shift to the Euro and Euro-denominated debt as its preferred reserve currency holding; and will purchase significant [ultimately, $1 trillion, as we migrate our forex holdings down to one-third USD, one-half EUR, one-sixth yen/pound/other] quantities of European debt. Note that this will be a gradual process to avoid financial panic, and one that will involve Chinese purchase of higher-risk Euro-denominated bonds from Italy and Spain--we expect a reasonable guarantee on the part of the ECB that they will not default.
Rail standardization; including adoption by China of ETCS [and subsidization of adoption of ETCS by Central Asian nations, including all the 'stans', and Iran/Turkey], and synchronization of rolling-stock standards to allow trains to run seamlessly from China to Europe
These are really just a starting point, and we'd like to hear the EU's thoughts on this matter. Negotiating trade agreements with the EU is known to be difficult, but we think we may find it worthwhile.
In 1947, India had just Rs 1500 crore cash. Today, we are about to cross $500 billion in foreign reserves. We have come a long way
In 1947, when India got independence, we had just Rs 1500 crore in cash with us, and even paying Rs 55 crore to Pakistan was a big deal. Mahatma Gandhi had to keep a day's fast to convince Vallabhbhai Patel to transfer Rs 55 crore to Pakistan. Then we started storing foreign reserves to the calamity and emergency. In 1960, India had foreign reserves of $1.46 billion, which could have lasted just 8 weeks of import. In 1980, India had foreign reserves of $7 billion In 1991, India's foreign reserves dipped to an alarming level of just $1.2 billion, which could have lasted just 3 weeks of imports. RBI had to pledge 46.91 tonnes of gold with the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, and raised $400 million to deal with the unprecedented crisis In 2004, for the first time, we achieved foreign reserves of $100 billion Due to solid performance of our foreign reserves, we somehow navigated the recession of 2009, and our foreign reserves stood at $270 billion And now, for the first time in our history, India will have $500 billion of foreign reserves. As of now, we have $493 billion, which is enough to sustain 17 months of imports. We are right now world's 3rd biggest nation with foreign reserves, after China and Japan. India has indeed come a long way from having just Rs 1500 crore in cash to pledging Gold to sustain the economy, to crossing half a trillion-dollar of foreign reserves. Sources: 12345
China is heavily exposed to the U.S. dollar, but now, with the risk of "decoupling," Beijing is silently diversifying its reserves to reduce its dependence on the world's largest reserve currency ... China‘s External Portfolio Investment Assets (by country or region) External Assets and Liabilities in China’s Banking Sector. Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales by Banks. International Receipts and Payments via Banks. Direct Investments by Financial Institutions. Selected Data on Transactions in the Foreign Exchange Market of China. 主页 > Data and Statistics > Forex Reserves. Return ... Foreign Exchange Reserves in China decreased to 3127982 USD Million in October from 3142562 USD Million in September of 2020. Foreign Exchange Reserves in China averaged 1100453.07 USD Million from 1980 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 3993212.72 USD Million in June of 2014 and a record low of 2262 USD Million in December of 1980. This page provides - China Foreign Exchange Reserves ... China's foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 3.1426 trillion as of the end of September 2020, down USD 22 billion or 0.7% from the end of August, ac China has also been ramping up its gold reserves this year. It held 62.64 million fine troy ounces of gold at end-September, up 5.2% from 59.560 million ounces at the end of 2018. China’s foreign exchange (forex) reserves, by far the world’s largest, unexpectedly dropped by US$22 billion in September to US$3.1426 trillion, according to data released by the State ... China’s foreign exchange reserves fell to about $3.128 trillion at the end of October from $3.143 trillion as of end-Sept., according to data from the People’s Bank of China.
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In this video, we are going to learn about Foreign Exchange Reserves, foreign exchange market - how it works, who are the participants and how it affects imp... In this video you will see the timeline of top 20 countries for the course of last 55 years in total reserves including gold and foreign currency bonds etc...I ... An all-new crisis is about to hit the Chinese economy with the CCP staring into a deep crisis triggered by China’s dwindling Foreign Exchange reserves. The F... How a central bank could use foreign currency reserves to keep its own currency from devaluing Watch the next lesson: https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-f... During the first quarter of 2020, The Federal Reserve printed more than two trillion dollars with more on the way. This Fed's endless printing of US dollars ... How and why a central bank would build foreign currency reserves Watch the next lesson: https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/macroeconomics/f... The news is here because of members like you! 🛑 PLEASE HELP TO SUPPORT WHAT WE DO 🛑 https://www.patreon.com/fullspectrumsurvival --- Join us on there! You Wi...